Comments for NOT AN ANALYST http://www.notananalyst.com From Chaos Comes Opportunity Thu, 29 Apr 2010 18:16:03 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0 Comment on Analysis of Chemtura Corp bonds by michelangelo http://www.notananalyst.com/2010/04/02/analysis-of-chemtura-corp-bonds/comment-page-1/#comment-31 michelangelo Thu, 29 Apr 2010 18:16:03 +0000 http://www.notananalyst.com/?p=1227#comment-31 I have constructed a waterfall analysis with updated info, which I can send you on an e-mail, and I came up with a $2.01 a share with an EV of $2,509 (adding a multiple of 7.7 to $325 EBITDA). This assumes a Dyacetil litigation charge of $300mm. Maybe that's to conservative, but I'd rather be that than aggressive here. What multiple are you using for EBITDA? Thanks I have constructed a waterfall analysis with updated info, which I can send you on an e-mail, and I came up with a $2.01 a share with an EV of $2,509 (adding a multiple of 7.7 to $325 EBITDA). This assumes a Dyacetil litigation charge of $300mm. Maybe that’s to conservative, but I’d rather be that than aggressive here. What multiple are you using for EBITDA?

Thanks

]]> Comment on Analysis of Chemtura Corp bonds by ardeus http://www.notananalyst.com/2010/04/02/analysis-of-chemtura-corp-bonds/comment-page-1/#comment-29 ardeus Sat, 24 Apr 2010 03:11:58 +0000 http://www.notananalyst.com/?p=1227#comment-29 I haven't done a whole lot of work on this name yet, but how about the pre-petition equity? It sounds like if you conservatively value this pig at 6x on $285M EBITDA, you are getting significant value for the equity holders. I understand about the "adequate protection" laws and its exclusion to shareholders, but the equity committee may have a strong case here. After deducting all senior claims, I am getting about $675m - $795M equity value. Based on 254.1 million shares outstanding, thats worth about $2.65 - $3.13 a share. I am looking at this incorrectly? Thanks. I haven’t done a whole lot of work on this name yet, but how about the pre-petition equity? It sounds like if you conservatively value this pig at 6x on $285M EBITDA, you are getting significant value for the equity holders.

I understand about the “adequate protection” laws and its exclusion to shareholders, but the equity committee may have a strong case here. After deducting all senior claims, I am getting about $675m – $795M equity value. Based on 254.1 million shares outstanding, thats worth about $2.65 – $3.13 a share.

I am looking at this incorrectly? Thanks.

]]> Comment on Swap leveraged ETF by Quantum Fading » Leveraged ETF News 14 http://www.notananalyst.com/2009/11/09/swap-leveraged-etf/comment-page-1/#comment-17 Quantum Fading » Leveraged ETF News 14 Wed, 06 Jan 2010 04:00:34 +0000 http://www.notananalyst.com/?p=131#comment-17 [...] ETFs (indexuniverse.com) 11/17/2009 Leveraged ETFs: More Regulation (thestreet.com) 11/9/2009 (How leveraged ETFs work) (notananalyst.com) 11/5/2009 Confessions of a Leveraged ETF Junkie, Part 1 (thestreet.com) [...] [...] ETFs (indexuniverse.com) 11/17/2009 Leveraged ETFs: More Regulation (thestreet.com) 11/9/2009 (How leveraged ETFs work) (notananalyst.com) 11/5/2009 Confessions of a Leveraged ETF Junkie, Part 1 (thestreet.com) [...]

]]> Comment on CIT Group post re-org value by michelangelo http://www.notananalyst.com/2009/12/08/cit-group-post-re-org-value/comment-page-1/#comment-10 michelangelo Mon, 14 Dec 2009 22:06:20 +0000 http://www.notananalyst.com/?p=830#comment-10 The Plan of Reorganization was accepted therefore you will get the new note plus the new equity even if you didn't vote. Look at page 36 of the offering memorandum located on the investor relations of CIT Group website. You will also find a PDF file called "Planned securities distribution by CUSIP", which will tell you exactly what you are getting. E-mail me if you have more questions. The Plan of Reorganization was accepted therefore you will get the new note plus the new equity even if you didn’t vote. Look at page 36 of the offering memorandum located on the investor relations of CIT Group website. You will also find a PDF file called “Planned securities distribution by CUSIP”, which will tell you exactly what you are getting. E-mail me if you have more questions.

]]> Comment on CIT Group post re-org value by lgmcm@juno.com http://www.notananalyst.com/2009/12/08/cit-group-post-re-org-value/comment-page-1/#comment-9 lgmcm@juno.com Mon, 14 Dec 2009 17:34:39 +0000 http://www.notananalyst.com/?p=830#comment-9 I have a class 8 Long-Dated Senior Note and I failed to accept the cit reorganization plan in time and I also failed to elect impaired treatment prior to the election deadline. What happens to my bond under the reorganization plan? I have a class 8 Long-Dated Senior Note and I failed to accept the cit reorganization plan in time and I also failed to elect impaired treatment prior to the election deadline. What happens to my bond under the reorganization plan?

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